University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Germany
At present the livestock sector in developing countries undergoes several changes on the way to development. Population growth, stagnant productivity and extensive production methods which are based to a large extent on the use of natural resources lead to high demand combined with limited production. This situation is also the case in Benin producing animal products mainly for own consumption including gifts and sacrificing, for improving household income of small farmers and for regional trade. Connections to the world market are in general weak, but frozen chicken and eggs are imported in large amounts. Benin will face an over proportional increase in demand for animal products due to its high population growth and an expected income growth per capita. The latter is relevant as income elasticities are greater than one for high protein products such as animal products in this region. This increasing demand of about 134% up to 2025 could be satisfied by changing the production method towards a more intensive system, increasing herd size or increasing import quantities. The further developed Agricultural Sector Model BenIMPACT studies the possibilities to meet the higher demand for animal products in the future. In the new version the livestock sectors is integrated into the model affording the opportunity to analyse and discuss the future development as well as international trade of animal products. The results are confronted with expert opinions which were evaluated in a field survey in October/November 2005. The experts stated that additional quantities will be mainly provided by intensification. They also assume that an expansion in animal numbers is a method for higher supply. However they projected small increases in productivity for the next twenty years why it seems obvious that without the connection to the world market the expected demand cannot be met.
Keywords: Agricultural sector model, Development, livestock management