Youpeng Ke, Jianchun Guo, Tan Jihu:
A Preliminary Study on Indicator System of Natural Rubber Security in China

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YOUPENG KE1,2, JIANCHUN GUO2,3, TAN JIHU3
1Chinese Academy of Tropical Agriculture, Rubber Reseach Institution, China
2South China University of Tropical Agriculture, Economics and Managment College, China
3South China University of Tropical Agriculture, Tropical Agricultural Development Research Institute, China

Natural rubber, a kind of world bulk industrial raw material and one of four important industrial raw materials, is scarce, short and strategic resource indispensable for national defense and industrial construction. Recent international gross demand for natural rubber has been steadily rising; international export resource of natural rubber has been decreasing annually.

The occupied rate of consumption of natural rubber in China has raised from 7.43% in 1981 to 19.56% in 2004, the growth range has reached as high as 163.26%; The share of China's natural rubber product in the world is 3.40% in 1981 up to 6.68% in 2005, which has increased 96.47%; The import share in the world has increased from 6.80% in 1981 to 20.63% in 2005, the percent of growth is up to 208.83%. domestic gap between supply and demand has inclined to enlarge and self-sufficiency rate has been unremittingly falling, in addition to the right to participate in rules of international rubber production, price, market and so on has been gradually marginalised, which extremely threatens China, whose present producing scale is only fifth in the world market, while consumption and import is first and its self-sufficiency is below 30%.

For all these reasons, the purpose of the study is to design an indicator system of natural rubber security based on the analysis of influencing factors of China's natural rubber production, consumption and import, the status in the world natural rubber market and etc.. On the basis of the above analysis, the paper mainly explores the definition content of the indicator system of natural security, and discusses the methods to calculate the security indicators, furthermore to discuss the criterion of the security indicators.



Keywords: China, indicator system, natural rubber, security


Full paper: http://www.tropentag.de/2006/abstracts/full/557.pdf

Footnotes

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Contact Address: Youpeng Ke, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agriculture, Rubber Reseach InstitutionChina, e-mail: ypke92@hotmail.com
Andreas Deininger, September 2006