Tropentag, September 10 - 12, 2025, Bonn "Reconciling land system changes with planetary health"

Can agroforestry sustain farm profitability under climate risks in Uzbekistan?

¹Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, Germany
²Weihenstephan Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Sustainable and resilient farming and food systems, Germany

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to rural livelihoods in Central Asia, a region increasingly vulnerable to climate extremes such as heatwaves, droughts, and erratic rainfall. These climatic changes challenge the sustainability of traditional agricultural production systems and contribute to socio-economic instability, including rising climate-induced migration. As such, there is an urgent need to adapt rural land use systems in ways that are both climate resilient and supportive of broader planetary health goals. Agroforestry systems, which integrate trees with crops and/or livestock, offer a promising land use strategy in this context. Agroforestry systems are known to moderate local microclimates, improve soil health and water retention, and diversify farm income sources, thereby strengthening the resilience of farming households. These ecological and economic co-benefits make agroforestry systems particularly attractive under conditions of climatic stress, where diversification and resilience are key to long-term sustainability.
This study investigates the potential of agroforestry systems to enhance both profitability and climate resilience for smallholder farmers in the Ferghana Valley in Uzbekistan, focusing on key regions engaged in fruit and nut production. We conducted structured socio-economic surveys with 250 farm households, both using agroforestry systems and non-agroforestry systems, for the season 2024. Using capital budgeting methods, regression analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations, we examined how profitability is influenced by exposure to climate-related risks, as well as the coping and adaptation strategies adopted. By comparing outcomes across land use types, the study offers new insights into how agroforestry systems can contribute to reconciling land system transformation with the imperatives of planetary health, rural development, and climate adaptation in vulnerable regions.

Keywords: Agroforestry, Central Asia, climate risk, monte-carlo simulation, resilience

Contact Address: Jannike Van Bruggen, Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, Marie-Curie-Str. 1, 47533 Kleve, Germany, e-mail: jannike.vanbruggenhochschule-rhein-waal.de