Tropentag, September 14 - 16, 2022, Prague
"Can agroecological farming feed the world? Farmers' and academia's views."
Accurate drought change risk perception in kyrgyzstan, uzbekistan, and mongolia
Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Begaiym Emileva, Germany
Agricultural drought is a major threat to farmers in semi-arid and arid regions under the global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. So far, little attention has been paid in the literature to understand farmers' accurate perceptions of agricultural drought changes and its actual changes.
Moreover, information on the determinants of accurate perceptions of changes in agricultural drought can help policymakers pursue more targeted rural development policies. The purpose of this article is to fill this gap by analysing the discrepancy between farmers' subjective perceptions of agricultural drought changes and actual changes, as well as the main factors influencing farmers' accurate perceptions of agricultural drought changes. The analysis was based on a cross-sectional dataset of 2,830 observations collected in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia in 2021. The reason to select these areas is that drought has intensified in these regions over the recent decades. Results showed that 66 percent in Kyrgyzstan, 46 percent in Uzbekistan and 50 percent in Mongolia accurately perceived changes in agricultural drought.
The mean NDVI was 0.5 in Kyrgyzstan, 0.4 in Uzbekistan, and 0.5 in Mongolia during intense vegetation month between 2010 to 2020. The results of the probit model showed that agricultural education, gender, land size, farm organisation, fertiliser application, irrigation type, extension service and agro-ecological zone affect the accurate agricultural drought changes perception in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia. The results of our study also showed that agricultural education, annual income and extension services had no significant effect on the accurate perception of agricultural drought changes in all countries.
Keywords: Drought risk perception, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, NDVI, risk determinants, Uzbekistan
Contact Address: Begaiym Emileva, Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Begaiym Emileva, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany, e-mail: emilevaiamo.de