Tropentag, September 16 - 18, 2026, Göttingen "Towards multi-functional agro-ecosystems promoting climate-resilient futures"

Land-use change emissions from cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire: Food systems' contributions to national GHG budgets and potential EUDR noncompliance

The Alliance of Bioversity International & CIAT, Multifunctional Landscapes, Colombia

Abstract

Agricultural food systems account for one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but the share of commodity supply-chains in national GHG inventories is poorly understood, especially in tropical producing countries where most of the emissions are driven by land-use change. In the world's leading cocoa producer, Côte d'Ivoire, the cocoa food system has grown rapidly recently, but its emissions profile and geographical distribution have rarely been quantified accurately.
This study fills that gap. We quantify GHG emissions from the cocoa food system in Côte d'Ivoire between 2010 and 2020, determine which cocoa-producing regions are the most carbon-intensive, and assess what these emissions trends mean for compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), a policy that prohibits the importation of commodities associated with post-2020 deforestation into the European Union. We address three questions: what extent cocoa production contributes to climate change through land-use change; which cocoa-producing regions are most vulnerable to potential exclusion under the EUDR; and what recent cocoa-driven deforestation patterns suggest about the potential effectiveness of the EUDR.
We use high-resolution satellite imagery, above-ground biomass, and estimates of below-ground biomass, and soil organic carbon to calculate that the cocoa food system produced average emissions of 25.7 tCO₂e/ha/year between 2010 and 2020, accounting for about 22.56% of the entire AFOLU sector, which represents 65.19% of Côte d'Ivoire's total net GHG emissions. Emissions were highest in the west and south-central regions, where 38% of Tropical Moist Forest cover lost was converted to cocoa, with Haut-Sassandra (70.3%), Cavally (52.4%) and Gôh (50.4%) having the highest conversion rates. Total emissions were highest in Cavally, San-Pédro, Haut-Sassandra, Tonkpi, and Lôh-Djiboua, while emissions per hectare converted were highest in San-Pédro, Tonkpi, Sud-Comoé, Grands-Ponts, and the Autonomous District of Abidjan.
If this trajectory continues, much of Ivorian cocoa will be potentially excluded from the EU market, one of its major destinations, causing impacts on export earnings and carbon finance. This study provides quantitative evidence to identify high-risk landscapes and support supply-chain due diligence under EUDR requirements.

Keywords: Cocoa, deforestation, EUDR, food systems, land-use, supply-chain

Contact Address: Maria Victoria Diaz Lopez, The Alliance of Bioversity International & CIAT, Multifunctional Landscapes, Cali, Colombia, e-mail: m.v.diazcgiar.org