Tropentag, September 16 - 18, 2026, Göttingen "Towards multi-functional agro-ecosystems promoting climate-resilient futures"

Rainfall shocks, labour migration, and the climate adaptation deficit: Remittances as a missed opportunity in small holder maize systems in southwest Nigeria

University of Ibadan, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change poses escalating threats to smallholder agricultural systems across sub-Saharan Africa, intensifying the frequency and severity of rainfall variability, pest pressure, input price shocks, and soil degradation. In this context, migration, already a widespread livelihood strategy in rural Nigeria operates simultaneously as a climate vulnerability amplifier (depleting agricultural labour) and a potential adaptation resource (generating remittance income). This paper examines the intersection of migration, remittances, and climate adaptive capacity among maize farming households in Saki East Local Government Area, Oyo State, Nigeria, using primary survey data from 180 farming households.
The study finds that while 63.33% of households receive remittances averaging ₦96,452 per season, approximately 95% of these transfers are consumed rather than invested in climate-adaptive farm practices. Multiple linear regression analysis reveals that remittance receipt does not significantly predict farm-level investment (β = 0.002, p = 0.936), while access to extension services (β = 0.098, p = 0.002) the primary institutional channel for climate-smart technology diffusion emerges as the strongest investment driver. The analysis documents a critical climate adaptation deficit: farm insurance uptake is near-zero, irrigation investment is minimal, and post-harvest storage infrastructure is largely absent across the sampled households. These gaps leave smallholder maize systems highly exposed to climate-induced shocks with no financial buffer.
The paper argues that remittances represent a latent climate adaptation resource that structural and institutional barriers prevent from being mobilised productively. It proposes a climate-adaptive remittance investment framework , integrating weather-indexed micro-insurance, remittance-backed adaptive input credit, and climate-focused extension advisory to close the adaptation deficit in Nigeria's smallholder maize systems. These findings contribute empirical evidence from the Global South to Tropentag 2026's thematic focus on climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and data-driven approaches to agro-ecosystem resilience.

Keywords: Agricultural resilience, climate change adaptation, extension services, maize systems, Nigeria, remittances, smallholder agriculture, weather-indexed insurance

Contact Address: Dara Adeduntan, University of Ibadan, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, 200005 Ibadan, Nigeria, e-mail: adeduntan2001gmail.com