Using the spatial modelling of food product ecosystem service to evaluating the food security in Iran (case study: Qazvin province)
Houman Liaghati1, Naghmeh Mobarghaee2, Mostafa Keshtkar2
1Shahid Beheshti University, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Iran
Food security exists when all people always have physical and economic access to adequate, healthy, and nutritious food. But population growth and change in pattern of food consumption, lead to increased consumption and create a greater demand than food production levels. Monitoring the food security along with population growth and cultivation restrictions, are essential but a lack of spatial indicators for evaluating the balance and parity and also heterogeneity of economic and social systems, leads to estimations with high uncertainty. In this research for solving this problem, a spatial model was developed for evaluating the food security indicators. Food security indicators used for this research, are average protein supply, crop production, average adequacy of dietary calories supply, and the average value of food production that in pixel scale and political boundary of Qazvin province was investigated. By field survey land use data was prepared and crop yield modelling information was calculated for each section of land use . By using the spatial model and Python, food security was modeled for three strategic crop: wheat, barley, and rice. Results shows that Qazvin province has a high level of food security in terms of food availability indicators. With Comparing to cities, most measure of food security is in BoeinZahra city and less measure is belonging to Avaj city. The location of Qazvin province on a national scale necessitates the province to support the food security of the capital of Tehran, but the water crisis and population growth will threaten the food security of this region. The results also show that using spatial patterns for evaluating the food security, in addition of recognise hotspot and coldspot points, can prepared the cognition of overflow sites can utilise in spatial scenario compilation.
Keywords: Cultivated pattern, ecosystem service, keywords: sustainable agriculture, land use planning, Nexus
Contact Address: Naghmeh Mobarghaee, Shahid Beheshti University, Environmental Planning, Velenjak, Tehran, Iran, e-mail: n_mobargheiyahoo.com