Tropentag, September 16 - 18, 2026, Göttingen "Towards multi-functional agro-ecosystems promoting climate-resilient futures"

Impacts of climate-induced water scarcity on rice production among smallholder farmers in the Northern Region, Ghana

¹University of Nigeria Nsukka, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Nigeria
²University for Development Studies, Dept. of Natural Resources and Geo-information Sciences, Ghana
³University for Development Studies, Dept. of Environment and Sustainability Sciences, Ghana

Abstract

Climate change has intensified water scarcity threatening rice production and food security in Northern Ghana. Despite the gradual increase in rainfall trends over short rainy seasons, the region is concurrently experiencing recurrent drought conditions and drastic reductions in water bodies, suggesting climate-induced hydrological imbalance. This paradox has raised concerns about the vulnerability of smallholder farmers and sustainability of rice farming in the region. This study assessed the impacts of climate-induced water scarcity on rice production among smallholder farmers in the Northern Region, Ghana using the mixed-method approach. Primary data were collected from 420 rice farmers using semi-structured questionnaire, while secondary data were obtained from reputable sources. Data were analysed using geospatial analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics. The trends analysis showed increasing rainfall suggesting a disconnect between rainfall pattern and effective water availability. Additionally, minimum and maximum temperatures, and minimum relative humidity indicated upwards trends, while maximum relative humidity showed decreasing trend over the period (1990-2022). Spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use/land-cover changes between 2014 and 2024 showed significant expansion in settlement (63.62%) and cropland (19.23%), while a decline in vegetation (-25.06%), water bodies (-33.56%), and open-land (-5.29%), demonstrating rapid landscape changes over this period. The result showed that rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures significantly influenced rice yields over the period (1990-2022). The cross-sectional results indicated that adaptation practices such as improved seed, irrigation practices, and soil moisture conservation, significantly influenced rice yields. The results showed that institutional weakness (19.8%), water stresses (14.3%), financial challenges (13.5%), and climate vulnerability (12%) accounted for 60% of the total variance of the farmers’ challenges. The study developed two models including Farmer Vulnerability Tree (FVT) and Integrated Farmer Vulnerability (IFV) Models for further studies. In conclusion, the study reveals a climate-agriculture paradox, where increasing rainfall does not translate into adequate water availability leading to recurring water scarcity. Climatic factors have a significant influence on the rice yield, underscoring the need for effective adaptation practices. The study recommends the use of FVT and IFV models for future studies, alongside strengthened regional stakeholder-led interventions including capacity building in water-energy-food nexus, and strengthening irrigation systems for sustainable rice production.

Keywords: Ghana, land-use/land-cover changes, multidimensional challenges, rice production, vulnerability, water scarcity

Contact Address: Terkula Donald Uchua, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
current address: TL1350 Tamale, Ghana, e-mail: uchuadonaldgmail.com