Discrepancies between objective and subjective changes in agricultural drought. accurate agricultural drought change perception and its determinants: cross-country evidence in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia
Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Begaiym Emileva, Germany
Agricultural drought is a major threat to farmers in semi-arid and arid regions under the global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. Meanwhile, international experience shows that individual perceptions about climate change might fundamentally deviate from objective measures. So far, little attention has been paid in the literature to understanding farmers' accurate perceptions of agricultural drought changes and its actual changes. Insights also into the determinants of accurate perceptions of changes in agricultural drought can help policymakers pursue more targeted rural development policies. The purpose of this article is to fill this gap by analysing the discrepancy between farmers' subjective perceptions of agricultural drought changes and actual changes, as well as the main factors influencing farmers' accurate perceptions of agricultural drought changes.
Keywords: Agricultural drought, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, NDVI, risk determinants, risk perception, Uzbekistan
Contact Address: Begaiym Emileva, Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Begaiym Emileva, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany, e-mail: emilevaiamo.de