Climate change impact on mixed-crop livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Amit Kumar Srivastava, Thomas Gaiser, Frank Ewert, Andreas Enders, Alparslan Demircan
University of Bonn, Inst. Crop Sci. and Res. Conserv. (INRES), Germany
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is particularly exposed and vulnerable to climate risks and therefore warrants a profound estimate of the effects of current and future climate on crop and livestock production to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. Therefore, the current study attempts to develop an integrated modelling framework at a farm-scale (IFM-FARM) for simulating the impact of climate change scenarios on the potential productivity of the mixed crop-livestock production systems in SSA. Dominant crops such as millet, sorghum, and maize and total livestock units (TLUs) based on one Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP 4.5) from the four General Circulation Models (GCMs) namely mbc-cclm-mpiesm, mbc-wrf-gfdlesm, mbc-wrf-hadgem2, and mbc-wrf-mpiesm in Sudan and Savannah zone of SSA were chosen in the study. The time-horizon 1981-2005 and 2020-2050 were considered to represent the baseline and near-future climate conditions respectively.
Keywords: Climate change, integrated modelling framework, livestock, sub-Saharan Africa
Contact Address: Amit Kumar Srivastava, University of Bonn, Inst. Crop Sci. and Res. Conserv. (INRES), Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, Germany, e-mail: amituni-bonn.de