Tropentag, September 11 - 13, 2024, Vienna "Explore opportunities... for managing natural resources and a better life for all"

Augmenting anticipatory action and resilience in fragile, data-challenged, conflict-affected settings: The case of Tigray, Ethiopia

¹International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Water, Climate Change and Resilience, Sri Lanka
²Mekelle University, Dept. of Psychology, Ethiopia
³USAID, United States

Abstract

The conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, which began on November 4, 2020, with a series of localised skirmishes, rapidly devolved into a devastating civil war involving multiple actors, including regional militias, the national government, and foreign troops. The conflict resulted in widespread human rights abuses and a dire humanitarian crisis that displaced millions of people. While a lack of reliable data collection in the region over the last four years makes substantiating the extent of the human toll difficult, analyst modelling suggests that the conflict may have caused 400,000-850,000 fatalities, encompassing both combatants and civilians. This study explores the compounded impacts of this poly-crisis on climate change adaptation and resilience within affected communities, particularly in urban areas hosting internally displaced persons (IDPs) where identifying sources of information that are considered trustworthy by various stakeholders and decision-makers has proven challenging.

Before the conflict, Tigray had been advancing in terms of water and infrastructure development, but the war dramatically reversed these gains, precipitating the failure of essential services and necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention. The study highlights a strategic pivot in humanitarian action praxis, moving from a traditional, unconditional "no regrets" approach towards a more conflict-sensitive and evidence-driven anticipatory action (AA) strategy in the context of conflict-induced crises.

Normative consultations in the donor community reveal an increasing demand for cross-checking needs-based data. Consequently, this study will showcase robust, evidence-driven strategies for AA, including vulnerability analysis of IDP hosting communities through a case study design, enhanced by innovative data collection tools including citizen science and remote sensing.

Keywords: Anticipatory action, citizen science, climate adaptation, conflict-sensitive, Ethiopia, evidence-driven, mitigation, remote sensing

Contact Address: Mitchell McTough, International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Water, Climate Change and Resilience, 127 Sunil Mawatha Colombo, 10120 Battaramulla, Sri Lanka, e-mail: m.mctoughcgiar.org