Tropentag, September 10 - 12, 2025, Bonn "Reconciling land system changes with planetary health"

EUDR compliance in Ghana’s natural rubber sector and its implications for smallholders

¹Bern University of Applied Sciences, School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences (HAFL), Switzerland
²Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Agroforestry, Ghana

Abstract

The study analyses the implications of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for natural rubber producers in Ghana. Using a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) over a 30-year horizon, it models the net present value (NPV) of a standard 4-hectare plantation under scenarios of reduced global exports to the European Union (EU). The analysis shows that even a modest 2.5% decline in EU-bound rubber exports could increase the NPV by 17% for an independent EUDR-compliant producer. However, a market shock comparable to the COVID-19 crisis occurring in the fifth year of production would lead to a 20% drop in NPV—offsetting all gains.
These results emphasize the importance of coordinated efforts across the value chain to ensure more inclusive access to the potential benefits of EUDR compliance for producers. The recent creation of the Association of Natural Rubber Actors of Ghana (ANRAG) presents an opportunity to centralize efforts and increase efficiency, such as avoiding repeated geolocation of plantations by factories. However, mistrust among producers toward collective efforts may hinder participation. Without efforts to address these institutional barriers, some producers risk exclusion from EU markets.
The study also highlights the need for crisis management measures to preserve the financial gains of compliance during market downturns. Rising exports of unprocessed rubber have weakened local factories that struggle to secure raw material. To address this, authorities have introduced an authorization system requiring approval for raw rubber exports. This measure could serve as a temporary response mechanism when domestic factories are unable to buy—helping producers maintain market access and retain the NPV gains linked to EUDR compliance, while safeguarding the long-term viability of local processing.
While the EUDR can create financial opportunities for smallholders, these remain fragile and will reach a broader share of producers only through stronger coordination within Ghana’s rubber sector. Beyond that, tackling global deforestation demands more from the EU than imposing compliance on tropical countries. It must also curb its overconsumption of forest-risk commodities and invest in the sustainable intensification of existing plantations to ease pressure on forests.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, EUDR, market shocks, natural rubber, smallholders

Contact Address: Stephan Mabica, Bern University of Applied Sciences, School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences (HAFL), Länggasse 85, 3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland, e-mail: stephan.mabicagmail.com