Tropentag, September 10 - 12, 2025, Bonn "Reconciling land system changes with planetary health"

Modelling ecological niche of predominant mega trees and implication for management of ivorian’s protected areas

¹Félix Houphouët-Boigny University, Switzer Centre of Scientific Research (CSRS), Côte d'Ivoire
² University Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d'Ivoire, Biological Sciences Department
³Félix Houphouët-Boigny University, Côte d'Ivoire, Biological Sciences Department

Abstract

Mega trees, although representing a small proportion of the flora of forest ecosystems, provide the bulk of ecosystem services. However, their degradation, accentuated by strong and changing climatic and ecological constraints, is intensifying under the action of anthropogenic activities. A better understanding of the response of these species to climate change can improve the ability to anticipate or recognise their decline or expansion and to identify future habitats that are conducive to their conservation. Terefore, an urgent need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on mega trees and to undertake adaptive management planning that allows for the formulation of current and future conservation decisions. Hence the interest in this study, which permitted to analyse the potential effect of climate change on their geographical distribution. To do this, inventories of mega trees were conducted in 2500 m² plots randomly distributed in different types of ecosystems of the Azagny National Park. Also, occurrence data collected via online databases (GBIF, RAINBIO), and environmental variables (bioclimatic, edaphic and topographic), ecological niche models have been established under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) by 2070. The study showed that 49 species of mega-trees were identified, of which five predominant species of mega-trees were determined using the Value of Importance Index (IVI). In addition, the results showed a strong preponderance of these species in the current habitats of southern Côte d'Ivoire. In addition, it should be noted that there was a general reduction in highly favourable habitats in the State's Forest Estates under the SSP585 scenario. The Random Forest method proved to be the most efficient in modelling. The study provided essential guidance for the management of the parks, and the adaptive planning of forest resources in the face of climate change.

Keywords: Côte d’Ivoire, Diversity of mega trees, Niche Models, spatial distribution, Species important Value Index

Contact Address: Constant Yves Adou Yao, Félix Houphouët-Boigny University, Switzer Centre of Scientific Research (CSRS), UFR Biosciences, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, e-mail: adouyaocygmail.com