Tropentag, September 16 - 18, 2026, Göttingen "Towards multi-functional agro-ecosystems promoting climate-resilient futures"

When conflict meets the farm: Youth disengagement and system collapse in Myanmar

¹University of Bonn, Inst. Crop Sci. and Res. Conserv. (INRES), Germany
²Independent researcher based in Depayin Township, Myanmar
³Hasanuddin University, Dept. of Marine Science, Indonesia
⁴Project Swallow, Research Unit, Myanmar
⁵Center for Operational Analysis and Research (COAR), Research Support Unit, Myanmar
⁶The University of Queensland, School of Agriculture and Food Sustainability, Australia

Abstract

Myanmar faces a severe hunger crisis, with around 15 million people projected to experience food insecurity (World Food Programme, 2025). Declining youth participation in agriculture is reducing the farm workforce and threatening food production. We examine systemic drivers and constraints shaping youth engagement in farming in Depayin Township, Sagaing Region, Myanmar, using a systems-thinking approach combining the Iceberg Model and causal loop diagramming (CLD) to identify structural and mental-model factors and feedback dynamics linking conflict, market disruption, profitability, and outmigration. Data were collected through 53 semi-structured interviews with farmers, complemented by literature and secondary sources, including international and government reports and news articles. A CLD was developed from these data and validated through four focus group discussions with 20 stakeholders, including local authorities, policymakers, NGO staff, truck drivers, farmers, business owners, and a women-only group of farmers and entrepreneurs. Results show that the farming system persists through a fragile balancing dynamic despite declining profitability. Small farms remain operational through remittances from family abroad, reflecting youth outmigration and loss of on-farm labour. Larger farms sustain marginal profits through economies of scale, though profitability remains constrained. However, conflict-driven reinforcing dynamics are accelerating system decline. Airstrikes have disrupted markets by displacing wholesalers, forcing farmers to rely on brokers offering low farm-gate prices. Heightened insecurity discourages storage and long-term planning, leading to rapid sales and reduced returns. Vegetable production is particularly vulnerable due to high transport costs, taxation, confiscation risks, and spoilage. Tomato production, a major Depayin crop, is approaching collapse within this reinforcing dynamic, as many farmers have stopped cultivating tomatoes and shifted toward rice production, where broker networks still function. Across both farm types, most young people express a desire to leave farming due to insecurity, low profitability, and uncertain futures. Leverage points identified include improving transport safety and reducing transport-related taxation. Critically, efforts to eliminate airstrikes against civilian and economic targets are essential, as ongoing conflict is a key driver of market collapse, livelihood insecurity, and youth exit from agriculture. By making these dynamics visible, this study provides a replicable framework for identifying intervention points in other conflict-affected agricultural systems.

Keywords: Agriculture, causal loop diagram, conflict-affected farming systems, food insecurity, Myanmar, rural livelihoods, systems thinking, youth engagement

Contact Address: Swe Zin Moe, University of Bonn, Inst. Crop Sci. and Res. Conserv. (INRES), Bonn, Germany, e-mail: ilasmoe2gmail.com