Tropentag 2024, September 11 - 13, Vienna, Germany "Explore opportunities... for managing natural resources and a better life for all"

Double shocks: Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 impacts on rice value chain, trade and fertiliser use in Africa

¹AfricaRice, Policy, Innovation Systems, and Impact Assessment Program (PII), Côte d'Ivoire
²World Bank Group, United States
³University of Parakou, Lab. of Analysis and Research on the Economic and Social Dynamics, Benin

Abstract

In 2020, the world saw the emergence of one of the most damaging pandemics in recent times which has been associated with food and nutrition insecurity. When things were somewhat improving two years later, the Russia-Ukraine conflict showed its face in February 2022 with further implications on food and nutrition security. These double shocks pose serious constraints on various staple value chains including rice which is heavily consumed in many parts of Africa.
In this paper, we examine how the rice value chain was fairing under both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We look at various aspects such as prices, production, yields, consumption, and trade. Considering the fertiliser crises in many parts of Africa and the contribution of fertiliser to improve the growth and productiveness of plants, look at aspects of fertiliser use. We rely on different datasets, examining three different periods; pre-COVID (2018-2020), during COVID (2022-2022), and post-COVID which reflects the Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022-2023). Data were analysed using fixed-effect regression models. We document some interesting findings: (i) Both COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war are negatively associated with rice production, and yields; (ii) The quantity of rice imported in sub-Saharan Africa saw an increase which is associated with an increase in rice price under the twin shocks; (iii) Both shocks are positively correlated with an increase in fertiliser prices (urea and DAP) and increase of rice prices and global food prices; (iv) The Russian-Ukraine war seems to have a more pronounced association with all these outcomes than the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results show that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the price of urea and DAP have increased significantly by $US 232 and $US 240, respectively. The Russian-Ukraine war seems to have a more pronounced association with the increase in fertiliser prices. In addition, we found evidence that during crises, rice, wheat, and maize prices have increased by $US 39, $US 107, and $US 92, respectively. Policymakers in Africa must prioritise investments in building resilience in agrifood systems to mitigate the impact of future crises and encourage the development of regional fertiliser manufacturing plants to reduce reliance on imports.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, fertiliser prices, food security, rice value chain, Russia-Ukraine conflict, sub-Saharan Africa.

Contact Address: Rachidi Aboudou, AfricaRice, Policy, Innovation Systems, and Impact Assessment Program (PII), Bouake, Côte d'Ivoire, e-mail: rachidiaboudougmail.com