Migrants' remittances, agricultural production and economic growth in Nigeria
Adewole Monsurat, Adeola Olajide
University of Ibadan, Agricultural Economics, Nigeria
This study investigates the relationship between migrants’ remittances, agricultural production and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1990 to 2020. The study used the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between variables. The outcome of the study revealed that the variables are bound together in the long run. The result showed that there exists a negative and significant relationship between remittances and economic growth in the long run but a positive and significant relationship in the short run. The study also showed that a positive and significant relationship exists between remittances and agricultural production in the long run but a negative and significant relationship was found between remittances and agricultural production in the short run thus, implying that remittance hold a prospect of growth in agricultural production for Nigerian households in the long-run, nut there appear to be no immediate gain or benefit from remittances to the growth in agricultural production in Nigeria in the short-run. The result of granger causality test showed that there exists a unidirectional causal relationship from remittance to GDP, from agricultural production to GDP, from Exchange rate to GDP as well as from remittance to agricultural production. The result of Toda -Yamamoto test showed that exchange rate, agricultural production, inflation and remittance all jointly affect GDP. Also, GDP, agricultural production, inflation and remittance all jointly affect exchange rate. Based on these findings, the paper therefore recommends that Nigerian government should put in place policies such as low charges on migrants’ remittance inflows in order to reduce inflow of remittance through informal channels. Also, the government should monitor the inflow of remittance into the country and formulate policies that ensure that it is being used for productive investments and activities so as to contribute positively to economic growth in the long-run.
Keywords: Agricultural Production, ARDL, Economic Growth, remittances
Contact Address: Adeola Olajide, University of Ibadan, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Ibadan, Nigeria, e-mail: preciousfunsoyahoo.com