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\hypersetup{pdftitle={A New Combination for Agribusiness Development or Disruption? Climate Change, Commodity Price and Cocoa Output Reaction to Nigeria Agribusiness},pdfauthor={Anthony Oko-Isu, Maria-Stella Etomchi Njoku, Joseph Onwumere, Christiana Igberi, Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke, Johnny O. Ogunji},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2018: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Climate Change, Cocoa, Commodity Price, Nigeria, Output, Volatility},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 17-19, 2018, Ghent}}\\[1ex] \Large{``Global food security and food safety:\\The role of universities''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{A New Combination for Agribusiness Development or Disruption? Climate Change, Commodity Price and Cocoa Output Reaction to Nigeria Agribusiness\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Anthony Oko-Isu, Federal University, Ndufu-alike, Ikwo, Ebonyi State, Nigeria, Department of Agriculture, 40 Uloanwu Street by Steve Omege Street through Nna Street Road, Abakaliki,, Nigeria, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{anthony.oko-isu@funai.edu.ng}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Anthony Oko-Isu$^{1}$, Maria-Stella Etomchi Njoku$^{2}$, Joseph Onwumere$^{3}$, Christiana Igberi$^{4}$, Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke$^{5}$, John\-ny Ony\-ema Ogunji$^{6}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$Federal University, Ndufu-alike, Ikwo, Ebonyi State, Nigeria, Department of Agriculture, Nigeria}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria, Department of Agricultural Economics, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria, Department of Agribusiness and Management, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{4}$Federal University Ndufu-Alike Ikwo, Dept. of Agriculture, Nigeria}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{5}$Imo State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, Nigeria}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{6}$Federal University Ndufu Alike Ikwo , Dept. of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Nigeria}}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Oko-Isu, Anthony}
\index[author]{Njoku, Maria-Stella Etomchi}
\index[author]{Onwumere, Joseph}
\index[author]{Igberi, Christiana}
\index[author]{Onyeneke, Robert Ugochukwu}
\index[author]{Ogunji, John\-ny Ony\-ema}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
It is acknowledged that cocoa represents an agribusiness commodity that merits special attention for climate change adaptation planning as it underpins an array of ecosystem services vital to the wider adaptive capacity of natural systems. Additionally, the macroeconomic impacts of commodity prices are important because they affect the level of per capita income, which is a key determinant of living standards for individuals and families in developing economies. In Nigeria, the matter of international commodity price may be immediately transmitted to the food security, imposing pressure to Nigeria's macro"=economy to a certain extent. This paper examines the response of cocoa output to climate change and commodity prices volatility in Nigeria from 1961--2015. In this paper, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) were applied to examine the volatility of daily cocoa commodity price with the daily data from January 1961 to December 2015. In addition, the Fully Modified"=ordinary least square (FM-OLS) regression is utilised to study the effects of climate variations and cocoa commodity price on cocoa output. The results reveal that there is volatility in international commodity prices of cocoa. More so, the yield of cocoa is positively affected by temperature, cocoa commodity price and combination of rainfall with cocoa commodity price while it is negatively influenced by real exchange rate and combination of temperature with cocoa commodity price. Ultimately, we present some sound reasons to explain the statistical results and propose some policy suggestions aimed at Nigeria's food security, agribusiness and macroeconomic development. }

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Climate Change, Cocoa, Commodity Price, Nigeria, Output, Volatility
\index[key]{Climate Change}
\index[key]{Cocoa}
\index[key]{Commodity Price}
\index[key]{Nigeria}
\index[key]{Output}
\index[key]{Volatility}
\end{document}
