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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Locally Developed Maize Cultivars Present Higher Yield Stability under Climate Change Scenarios},pdfauthor={Marcos Alberto Lana, Frank Eulenstein, Stefan Sieber, Michelle Bonatti, Sandro Luis Schlindwein, Henrique von Hertwig Bittencourt},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2016: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Adaptation, climate change, landrace, maize, open pollinated, resilience},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 18-21, 2016, Vienna, Austria}}\\[1ex] \Large{``Solidarity in a competing world ---\\fair use of resources''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Locally Developed Maize Cultivars Present Higher Yield Stability under Climate Change Scenarios\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Marcos Alberto Lana, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Land Use Systems, Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374~Müncheberg, Germany, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{lana@zalf.de}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Marcos Alberto Lana$^{1}$, Frank Eulenstein$^{2}$, Stefan Sieber$^{3}$, Michelle Bonatti$^{4}$, Sandro Luis Schlindwein$^{5}$, Henrique von Hertwig Bittencourt$^{6}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Land Use Systems, Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Inst. of Socio-Economics, Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{4}$Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{5}$Federal University of Santa Catarina, Rural Engineering, Brazil}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{6}$Federal University of Southern Border, Agronomy, Brazil}}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Lana, Marcos Alberto}
\index[author]{Eulenstein, Frank}
\index[author]{Sieber, Stefan}
\index[author]{Bonatti, Michelle}
\index[author]{Schlindwein, Sandro Luis}
\index[author]{Bittencourt, Henrique von Hertwig}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Maize is one of the world`s most important cereal, cultivated in a wide range of environments. Commercial breeding allowed remarkable increments in yield, at the same time drastically reduced its diversity, and increasing vulnerability against biotic and abiotic factors. The assessment of climate change impacts and the adaptation opportunities is one of the main challenges for agriculture. The objective is to assess the impact of climatic scenarios on four maize cultivars --- three open pollinated (OPC) and one hybrid --- using the DSSAT crop model. Field experiments (n=27) from different locations in Southern Brazil were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. Planting date consisted in nine dates (1\textsuperscript{st} August---1\textsuperscript{st} December, each 15 days). Scenarios of climate change resulted from the application of the incremental method on historical series of observations (30 years), with temperature increments ranging from +0.5ºC up to +3.0ºC (at 0.5ºC steps) and precipitation from ---\mbox{30\,\%} up to +\mbox{30\,\%} (\mbox{10\,\%} steps). Results showed that CERES --- Maize reproduced field observations of phenology and yield of two OPCs (MPA01, Fortuna) and the hybrid (AS1548). One OPC was not validated due its high phenotypic variability. Weather scenarios were used to build impact response surfaces and visualise the detailed effect of temperature and precipitation changes on yields. Late planting dates (November) produced higher yields, but with higher crop failure risk. The cultivar MPA01 presented the highest yield stability across all scenarios. The reason is that MPA01 is derived from a long"=term participatory work with the local farmers and technicians, well adapted to the regional conditions and practices. Regarding planting date, early dates (August) produced lower yields with higher risk of crop failure for all cultivars. Considering risk and yield, the best planting window for all cultivars is early spring (September/October). The OPCs produced adequate yields (MPA01=\mbox{5647\,kg}.ha$^{-1}$ and Fortuna=\mbox{6051\,kg}.ha$^{-1}$) and were less susceptible to yield changes, despite their slightly lower yield when compared to the hybrid (\mbox{6127\,kg}.ha$^{-1}$). Overall, this work shows that locally developed cultivars do have the potential to reach high yields and thus combine higher resilience when submitted to climate change scenarios.}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Adaptation, climate change, landrace, maize, open pollinated, resilience
\index[key]{Adaptation}
\index[key]{Climate change}
\index[key]{Landrace}
\index[key]{Maize}
\index[key]{Open pollinated}
\index[key]{Resilience}
\end{document}
