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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Indonesian Rice Availability in 2035: Surplus or Deficit?},pdfauthor={ Sukamdi, Warasmi Laksmiasri},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2016: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Deficit, food security, rice availability, surplus},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 18-21, 2016, Vienna, Austria}}\\[1ex] \Large{``Solidarity in a competing world ---\\fair use of resources''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Indonesian Rice Availability in 2035: Surplus or Deficit?\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:}  Sukamdi, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Environmental Geography, Sekip Bulaksumur, 55281~Sleman, Indonesia, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{sukamdi@ugm.ac.id}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{ Sukamdi, Warasmi Laksmiasri}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{Universitas Gadjah Mada, Environmental Geography, Indonesia}}}
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\index[author]{Sukamdi, }
\index[author]{Laksmiasri, Warasmi}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Indonesia is the country with the fourth most populous country in the world. In 2010, the population of Indonesia was 238,518,800 people and in 2035 is expected to increase to 305,652,400 inhabitants. Increasing the number of the population will bring about implications for various aspects. One important aspect is national food security.



The Indonesian government has taken various initiatives to ensure national food security, particularly with regard to the increased production of rice as a staple food. Population policy to lower population growth has also  reached a remarkable result, but the demand of rice is still high due to the large population and also tendency of using rice as the main staple food. It is very clear that the increase of rice demand is higher than the supply. The question is whether in 2035 rice production would be able to meet the needs of the national rice? 



This study was conducted to answer this question. There are two projection has been made. First is projection of rice consumption till 2035 based on the population projection made by the government. Second is  estimation of  rice production which will be done based on three assumptions: 1) production continues to increase; 2) constant production; 3) production decreased. The whole data used is based on the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The results reveal that Indonesia would still be a surplus of as much as 164,077, thousand kilograms of rice on the first assumption and surplus rice as 66,772 thousand kilograms in the second assumption. Conditions of food shortages as much as 22,473 thousand kilograms of rice will be experienced Indonesian when the third assumption is applied. These should become government concern in developing food security policies.



}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Deficit, food security, rice availability, surplus
\index[key]{Deficit}
\index[key]{Food!security}
\index[key]{Rice!availability}
\index[key]{Surplus}
\end{document}
