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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Farmers' Perception of Climate Change and Historical Evidence: Learning from Past to Support Adaptation Policy in Central Kenya},pdfauthor={Kinfe Asayehegn Gebreeyesus, Ana Iglesias, Ludovic Temple, Bernard Triomphe},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2016: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Central Kenya, farmers perception, historical evidence, impact studies},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 18-21, 2016, Vienna, Austria}}\\[1ex] \Large{``Solidarity in a competing world ---\\fair use of resources''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Farmers' Perception of Climate Change and Historical Evidence: Learning from Past to Support Adaptation Policy in Central Kenya\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Kinfe Asayehegn Gebreeyesus, Cirad, Umr Innovation, 1101, 142~Montpellier, France, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{kinfe85@gmail.com}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Kinfe Asayehegn Gebreeyesus$^{1}$, Ana Iglesias$^{2}$, Ludovic Temple$^{3}$, Bernard Triomphe$^{4}$}}
\end{center}
\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$Cirad, Umr Innovation, France}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$Polytechnic University Madrid, Agricultural Economics, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$Cirad, Umr Innovation, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{4}$Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), France}}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Gebreeyesus, Kinfe Asayehegn}
\index[author]{Iglesias, Ana}
\index[author]{Temple, Ludovic}
\index[author]{Triomphe, Bernard}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa are an extremely vulnerable group to climate change and climatic variability.  Understanding farmers' perceptions of the current climate and projected change are, therefore, crucial for anticipating their response, as only those who perceive the problem would take voluntary actions. The combined understanding of farmers' perception and empirical data and scientific projections is essential for adaptation planning that may be successfully implemented.  This study analyses first how farmers perceive climate change and whether this perception corresponds to meteorological records of changing climate, and second what climate change impacts farmers consider significant and its relationship to evidence from  the literature. Our data collection consists of three sources. Nine focus group discussions defined the collective perception of rainfall and temperature patterns, the main challenges to adaptation, and the farmers' responses in the past; the data was then used to formulate a standardised questionnaire to be implemented at the household level. The household survey (n=220), identifies farmers' characteristics, perceptions, and behavioural traits. The local climate data from representative meteorological stations, in Central Kenya was obtained from the national metrological department.   First, the farmers' perception of mean annual rainfall and temperature trends was analysed taking into account the annually observed changes in rainfall patterns; the results identify the drivers of climatic risk and the reasons being risk perception.  Second, applying a similar procedure, the changes are analysed from the meteorological records. Third, both the farmers' perception and meteorological data are compared with the results reported in a wide range of impact studies. . Our results show that farmers are aware of changes in mean annual temperature and rainfall.  The observed and perceived rainfall related variables (e.g., onset, duration, cessation, intensity, frequency and interannual variability) are in agreement with the long"=term changes in climate. }

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Central Kenya, farmers perception, historical evidence, impact studies
\index[key]{Central Kenya}
\index[key]{Farmers perception}
\index[key]{Historical evidence}
\index[key]{Impact studies}
\end{document}
