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\hypersetup{pdftitle={The Outlook of Ethiopian Long Rain Season from the Global Circulation Model},pdfauthor={Solomon Legesse},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2016: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Climate Change, Ethiopian Summer, keyword: Global Circulation Model, Long Rain Season , Rainfall},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 18-21, 2016, Vienna, Austria}}\\[1ex] \Large{``Solidarity in a competing world ---\\fair use of resources''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{The Outlook of Ethiopian Long Rain Season from the Global Circulation Model\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Solomon Legesse, Bahir Dar University, Natural Resources Management, Bahir Dar, 420~Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{soladd2000@yahoo.com}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Solomon Legesse}}
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\item[]{\small{\textit{Bahir Dar University, Natural Resources Management, Ethiopia}}}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Abstract 







Ethiopia presents a particularly difficult test for climate models. The central part of Ethiopia is dominated by highland plateaus, which split the country into two climatically. The south and east, the land is semi"=arid and the rain falls in two short spells either side of the dry season of summer (June to August). The north and west, the vegetation is more bush, and summer is the major rainy season. This split in the geographical distribution of rainfall, and the different seasonal cycles in different regions of Ethiopia make the task of simulating Ethiopian rainfall extremely challenging. The primary reason to study summer monsoon all over Ethiopia was due to the atmospheric circulation displays a spectacular annual cycle of rainfall in which more than \mbox{80\,\%} of the annual rain comes during the summer season comprised of the months June to September. Any minor change in rainfall intensity from the normal conditions imposes a severe challenge on the rural people since its main livelihood is agriculture which mostly relies on summer monsoon. This research work, entitled `Ethiopian Summer Rainfall from the Global Circulation Model Output Data and its Outlooks, has been conducted to fill such knowledge gaps of the target population. The objectives of the research were to examine the global circulation model output data and its outlooks over Ethiopian summer.  To attain this specific objective, global circulation model output data were used. These data were analysed by using Xcon, Matlab and Grid Analysis and Display System computer software programs.The results revealed that Ethiopian summer rainfall has been declined by 70.51mm in the past four decades (1971 to 2010); while the best performed models having similar trends to the historical observed rainfall data analysis predicted that the future summer mean rainfall amount will decline by about 60.07mm (model cccma) and 89.45mm (model bccr). To conclude, the legislative bodies and development planners should design strategies and plans by taking into account impacts of declining summer rainfall on rural livelihoods. 







}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Climate Change, Ethiopian Summer, keyword: Global Circulation Model, Long Rain Season , Rainfall
\index[key]{Climate Change}
\index[key]{Ethiopian Summer}
\index[key]{Keyword: Global Circulation Model}
\index[key]{Long Rain Season }
\index[key]{Rainfall}
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