An Integrated Pathway of Production Systems Modelling Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa
Amit Kumar Srivastava, Thomas Gaiser, Frank Ewert
University of Bonn, Inst. Crop Sci. and Res. Conserv. (INRES), Germany
Most parts of sub-Saharan Africa are characterised by low crop productivity and large yield gaps. According to FAO (2011) a rise in food demands of about 70% is expected globally by 2050 with largest increase rates in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the lowest crop productivity per hectare (highest yield gap) and lowest adaptation capacity to the expected climatic changes. A comprehensive and detailed analysis of the production systems in each country at the national level is resource and data limited. However, emerging issues like closing yield gaps or impacts of climate change could be addressed via model based, spatially explicit scenario analysis of national production system, estimating the impact of intensification/adaptation scenarios on the national food production. One major output would be the identification of potential hotspots of vulnerability to climate change or of most promising areas for investment into intensified crop production.
Keywords: Production systems modelling, sub-Saharan Africa, yield gap
Contact Address: Amit Kumar Srivastava, University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, Germany, e-mail: amituni-bonn.de