Using a System Dynamics Framework to Assess Disease Risks of Pig Value Chains in Vietnam
Thi Thu Huyen Nguyen1, Nam Ha Duong1, Van Hung Pham1, Thi Duong Nga Nguyen1, Fred Unger2, Karl Rich3, Lucy Lapar2
1Hanoi University of Agriculture, Dept. of Quantitative Analysis, Vietnam
In Vietnam, there are more than 4 million households producing pigs and pork. This accounts for 57% of quantity of meat consumed. One of the most critical constraints to pig production is the presence of animal disease. Pig disease outbreaks are a regular occurrence in various parts of the country, with the industry affected by diseases such as foot and mouth disease, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, classical swine fever, porcine high fever disease, and swine influenza. In addition, food safety issues related to pig diseases and pork-borne diseases have also increasingly become more important concerns for consumers. Recent studies have shown significant changes in consumption behaviour in response to disease outbreaks. For instance, at least half of urban consumers stop consuming pork in times of pig disease epidemics and/or shift consumption to other meat substitutes such as poultry or fish. Disease risks thus have both public health and livelihoods impacts that are important to understand for appropriate policy and practice response.
Keywords: Disease risk, pig value chain, system dynamics model
Contact Address: Lucy Lapar, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Hanoi, Vietnam, e-mail: L.Laparcgiar.org