Tropentag, September 19 - 21, 2012 in Göttingen "Resilience of agricultural systems against crises"

Modelling the Adaptation Strategies of Farmers of the Andes Against Climate Change and the Related Development of Land Use / Land Cover

¹Technische Universität Dresden, Inst. of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Sciences, Germany
²University of Hohenheim, Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Social Siences in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany
³Technische Universität Dresden, Inst. of International Forestry and Forest Products: Tropical Forestry, Germany

Abstract

There is a strong demand from policy makers for predictions about the impacts of climate change and the effect of potential adaptation responses on the local scale. This can be a difficult task, especially when dealing with highly complex socio-ecological systems. This paper discusses the suitability of agent-based-models (ABMs) for such a task. Formally, agent-based modelling is a computational method that enables a researcher to create, analyze, and experiment with models composed of agents that interact with each other within an environment.
The research uses mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems (MP-MAS), an ABM software application for simulating land use change in agriculture and forestry. We use MP-MAS for assessing the development of farming systems under potential climate change scenarios in agricultural systems of the Andes of Peru. MP-MAS couples a cellular component representing a physical landscape with an agent-based component representing land-use decision-making. The uniqueness of MP-MAS lies in the fact that it incorporates whole farm mathematical programming to simulate land use decision-making.
A prototype was implemented with the data available from the INCA project in the Achamayo watershed located in Junín, Peru. As environmental driver of land use change the model used information about daily average, minimum and maximum temperature of the last 30 years to predict three different scenarios for the year 2050. Main land uses included agriculture, grasslands, forest plantations and urban areas. Preliminary results show in all scenarios an expansion of the agricultural land while grasslands decrease in total area and also in quality (with more grassland area categorised as “low density”). Between the adaptation responses of farmers, agroforestry was the one with a higher increase.
Further model development considers water availability as abiotic driver of land use change, market forces, as well as potential policy interventions (e.g. credit, subsidies) for local livelihood improvement. The relative impact of these drivers on systems dynamics will be discussed.

Keywords: Adaptation, climate change, farming system, land use, land use change, modelling

Contact Address: Mariana Vidal Merino, Technische Universität Dresden, Inst. of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Sciences, Institut Für Waldwachstum und Forstliche Informatik Postfach 1117, 01735  Tharandt, Germany, e-mail: marianavidalforst.tu-dresden.de