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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Can Dairy Cow Systems Sustain Livelihood and Environmental Services?: Prospecting Landscape Dynamics in Upper Konto Catchment, Indonesia Using Fallow Model},pdfauthor={Betha Lusiana, Noviana Khususiyah, Georg Cadisch, Kurniatun Hairiah, Meine van Noordwijk},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Dairy cow systems, landscape model, methane emission estimation trade-off analysis, ruminant model},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Can Dairy Cow Systems Sustain Livelihood and Environmental Services?: Prospecting Landscape Dynamics in Upper Konto Catchment, Indonesia Using Fallow Model\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Betha Lusiana, University of Hohenheim, Dept. of Plant Production and Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, Garbenstr. 13, 70599~Stuttgart, Germany, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{blusiana@uni-hohenheim.de}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Betha Lusiana$^{1}$, Noviana Khususiyah$^{2}$, Georg Cadisch$^{3}$, Kurniatun Hairiah$^{4}$, Meine van Noordwijk$^{5}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$University of Hohenheim, Dept. of Plant Production and Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Southeast Asian Research Program, Indonesia}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$University of Hohenheim, Dept. of Plant Production and Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{4}$Brawijaya University, Soil Science Department, Indonesia}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{5}$World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Southeast Asian Research Program, Indonesia}}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Lusiana, Betha}
\index[author]{Khususiyah, Noviana}
\index[author]{Cadisch, Georg}
\index[author]{Hairiah, Kurniatun}
\index[author]{van Noordwijk, Meine}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Growing population and market"=based development accelerate landscape changes in parts of developing world.  In areas where new land is no longer available and accessible, agriculture intensification may lead to conflicts. Systems that does not require extensive use of land such as cut and carry ruminant systems may be able to reduce pressure on land requirement and avoid conflict.    



This paper describes the use of the FALLOW model ((http://www.worldagroforestry\unitfrac[.]{org}{af}2/fallow) in prospecting the impact of land use change on livelihood and environmental services in Upper Konto catchment of East Java, Indonesia.  A Ruminant Cut and Carry (RuCC) module was developed into FALLOW version 2.0, simulating the interactions between land use change, livestock carrying capacity and farmers' welfare.  A simple module calculating methane emission was also developed based on IPCC approach.  



In Upper Konto catchment (233 km$^{2}$), around \mbox{50\,\%} of land is owned by the state (State Forest Land) for production as well as watershed protection purposes.  Only \mbox{30\,\%} of land is accessible and owned by farmers.  Dairy cow systems can contribute to more than \mbox{70\,\%} of farmers' income.  A collaborative land management programme was recently established in the area allowing farmers to have access and cultivate part of State Forest Land with inter"=cropping systems while maintaining the tree growth.  The State Forest has also allowed planting of Napier grass in mature forest plantation supporting dairy cow systems in the area. Nevertheless, increased dairy cow population has increased fodder demand while more profitable intensively managed systems that supply less fodder such as horticulture has became more attractive to farmers.  Using the FALLOW model we prospected landscape dynamics under current condition with plausible scenarios (various access options  to State Forest, intensification of dairy cattle, planting coffee or cacao in between State Forest trees) and evaluated its consequences on farmers' welfare (secondary consumption beyond expenses for staple food), food security, changes in above"=ground carbon stocks and methane emission.  Scenarios outcomes and resulting recommendations taking into account a balance of the trade"=offs will be presented.  Preliminary results showed limited access to State Forest land will be able to maintain carbon sequestration and fodder supply.



}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Dairy cow systems, landscape model, methane emission estimation trade"=off analysis, ruminant model
\index[key]{Dairy cow systems}
\index[key]{Landscape model}
\index[key]{Methane emission estimation trade"=off analysis}
\index[key]{Ruminant model}
\end{document}