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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Implications of Climate Change on Regional and Global Food Supply Chains},pdfauthor={Peter Laderach, Anton Eitzinger, Michele Bruni, Lesbia Rizo},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Climate Change, Crop suitability, Food security, Supply chains},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\begin{center}
\Large{\textbf{Implications of Climate Change on Regional and Global Food Supply Chains\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Peter Laderach, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Decision and Policy Analysis Programm (DAPA), Managua, Apdo LM-172, Managua, Nicaragua, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{p.laderach@cgiar.org}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Peter Laderach$^{1}$, Anton Eitzinger$^{2}$, Michele Bruni$^{3}$, Lesbia Rizo$^{4}$}}
\end{center}
\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Decision and Policy Analysis Programm (DAPA), Managua, Nicaragua}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$Independant consultant, Colombia}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$Oxfam Gb, Latin America and Caribbean Region, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{4}$International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA), Nicaragua}}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Laderach, Peter}
\index[author]{Eitzinger, Anton}
\index[author]{Bruni, Michele}
\index[author]{Rizo, Lesbia}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Climate change increasingly impacts on crop suitability and food production across the globe. Crops have specific geographies in which they grow. With progressive climate change, environmental factors change and geographies become less suitable or even unsuitable for crops that have been grown there for decades. Changes in crop suitability have a direct impact on regional and global food supply, on farmers' livelihoods and on companies sourcing strategies. 







To quantify the exposition and sensibility of supply chains to climate change we use the most relevant Global Circulation Models (GCM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and a modified version of the crop"=niche suitability model Ecocrop. We then combine the predicted change in crop suitability with socio"=economic impact analysis to quantify the overall vulnerability of the supply chains to climate change. We demonstrate the methodology in \textbf{(i)}~a urban"=food supply chain for Bogotá, Colombia; \textbf{(ii)}~in a frozen vegetable supply chain from Sololá, Guatemala exporting to the US and Europe, and \textbf{(iii)}~in a supply chain in Jamaica producing fruits and vegetables for the hotel industry. 







The results show drastic changes in crop suitability and severe impacts on farmer's livelihoods and supply chain security. To assure long"=term sustainability of supply chains, and develop viable livelihood strategies, chain specific multi"=stakeholder adaptation strategies along the supply chain are necessary. Climate change affects all the stakeholders along the supply chain and bears therefore an incentive for the development of chain inclusive adaptation strategies. We outline and discuss possible strategies for the three analysed supply chains. 



}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Climate Change, Crop suitability, Food security, Supply chains
\index[key]{Climate Change}
\index[key]{Crop!suitability}
\index[key]{Food!security}
\index[key]{Supply chains}
\end{document}