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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Multi"=agent Simulation of the Effects of Participatory Management Approaches on the Sustainable Utilisation and Conservation of Kakamega Forest in Kenya},pdfauthor={Julius Maithya, Tobias Wünscher, Julia Schindler, Claudia Pahl-Wostl},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Conservation, economic experiments, multi-agent simulation},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Multi"=agent Simulation of the Effects of Participatory Management Approaches on the Sustainable Utilisation and Conservation of Kakamega Forest in Kenya\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Julius Maithya, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Walter Flex Str. 3, Bonn, Germany, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{mumo2002us@yahoo.com}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Julius Maithya$^{1}$, Tobias Wünscher$^{1}$, Julia Schindler$^{1}$, Claudia Pahl-Wostl$^{2}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$University of Osnabrueck, Institute of Environmental Systems Research, Germany}}}
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\index[author]{Maithya, Julius}
\index[author]{Wünscher, Tobias}
\index[author]{Schindler, Julia}
\index[author]{Pahl-Wostl, Claudia}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
The major reasons that have been cited for the ongoing degradation and deforestation of Kakamega forest in Western Kenya include abject poverty among the surrounding local communities and increasing population. Most poor people heavily depend on the forest for their livelihoods mainly through grazing as well as extraction of both fuel wood and construction poles. In order to simultaneously address the local livelihood needs as well as national conservation goals, the government revised and enacted a new forest law in 2007 with the aim of legally providing for participatory forest management (PFM). Under the proposed PFM arrangement, the government will co"=manage public forests together with the adjacent community members through organised community forest associations (CFAs). However, experience and results of PFM implementation in other places in Africa and Asia have been mixed with no clear cut general conditions for success. Further, literature shows that communities are not always composed of homogeneous groups acting in the interest of the larger society and therefore cases of free riding and rule violation are not uncommon. As such, we address the following questions for the specific case of Kakamega: 1) What are the likely behavioural patterns (cooperation levels) regarding forest conservation and utilisation with and without sanctioning institutions? 2) What are the likely livelihood and ecological impacts of PFM over time? To answer the first question, we conducted economic experiments in the study area using household heads as subjects. To answer the second question, we use the   results from behavioural experiments on cooperation and data from a household survey to build a multi"=agent system (MAS) for simulating resource use in a dynamic setting under different policy scenarios. Policies and external factors integrated in the MAS framework for exploring their impact on livelihoods and ecological sustainability are: risk, access permits, household size growth rate and household non"=firewood incomes. }

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Conservation, economic experiments, multi-agent simulation
\index[key]{Conservation}
\index[key]{Economic!Experiments}
\index[key]{Multi-Agent Simulation}
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