\documentclass[english,german]{scrartcl}
\usepackage[latin1]{inputenc}
\usepackage{geometry}
\geometry{verbose,a4paper,tmargin=1.75cm,bmargin=2cm,lmargin=2cm,rmargin=2cm,headheight=0.8cm,headsep=0.5cm,footskip=0.5cm}
\usepackage{babel}
\usepackage{url}
\urlstyle{same}
\newcommand\email{\begingroup \urlstyle{same}\Url}\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage{units}
\usepackage{tabularx}
\usepackage{wasysym} % enable use of \permil instead of \textperthousand
\usepackage{marvosym}
\usepackage{arabtex}
\usepackage{hyphenat}
\usepackage{booktabs}
\usepackage{mdwlist}
\renewcommand{\thefootnote}{\relax}
\usepackage{index}
\newindex{key}{kdx}{knd}{Keywords}
\newindex{author}{idx}{ind}{Authors}
\usepackage{fancyhdr}
\pagestyle{fancy}
\renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt}
\fancyfoot{}
\usepackage{ifpdf}
\ifpdf
%\usepackage[activate]{pdfcprot}
%\usepackage[owner=Tapioka, print=true, copy=true, edit=false, annotate=false,set]{pdfcrypt}
%encryption: not supported any more (since pdftex 1.10)
\usepackage[pdftex]{thumbpdf}
\usepackage[pdftex]{hyperref}
\hypersetup{pdftitle={Evaluation of Climate Change on Upper Blue Nile Basin Reservoirs: Case Study on Gilgel Abay Reservoir, Ethiopia},pdfauthor={Habtom Mulugeta Bekele, Seleshi Bekele Awelachew, Kassa Tadele},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Blue Nile, climate Change, GCM, Gilgel Abay., Reliability, Reservoir, Resilience, SDSM, Vulnerability},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
\else
\usepackage{ae}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\fi
\begin{document}
\ifpdf
\parbox[b]{2.5cm}{\resizebox*{2.5cm}{!}{\includegraphics{dtt2010.jpg}}}
\else
\parbox[b]{2.5cm}{\resizebox*{2.5cm}{!}{\includegraphics{dtt2010.eps}}}
\fi
\hfill
\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
\hspace{0.1cm}
\begin{center}
\Large{\textbf{Evaluation of Climate Change on Upper Blue Nile Basin Reservoirs: Case Study on Gilgel Abay Reservoir, Ethiopia\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Habtom Mulugeta Bekele, Arba Minch University, Hydraulic and  Water Resource Engineering, Arba Minch University, +225~Arba Minch, Ethiopia, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{habtomhydro@gmail.com}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Habtom Mulugeta Bekele$^{1}$, Seleshi Bekele Awelachew$^{2}$, Kassa Tadele$^{3}$}}
\end{center}
\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$Arba Minch University, Hydraulic and  Water Resource Engineering, Ethiopia}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$International Water Management  Institute(IWMI), Head of Iwmi and Nilebasin Initiative (NBI), }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$Arba Minch University, Water Resource and Irrigation Engineering, Ethiopia}}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Bekele, Habtom Mulugeta}
\index[author]{Awelachew, Seleshi Bekele}
\index[author]{Tadele, Kassa}
\begin{center}
\vspace{1.1cm}
\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
This study mainly deals with evaluation of the climate change impact on the Gilgel Abay reservoir which is found in Upper Blue Nile Basin, using the  reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (RRV-criteria). Projection of the future climate variables is done by using General Circulation Model (GCM) and Statistical Down Scaling Method (SDSM) is applied in order to downscale the climate variables from coarse resolution of GCM to catchment level. A hydrological model, HBV was utilised to simulate the water balance. The performance of the model was assessed through calibration and validation process and resulted R$^{2}$=0.82 during calibration and R$^{2}$=0.8 during validation. The projected future climate variable shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature however, for the case precipitation it doesn't manifest a systematic increase or decreasing trend in the next century. The evaporation from the open water surface of reservoir reveals an average annual increase by \mbox{2.1\,\%}, \mbox{6\,\%} and \mbox{22\,\%} under the A2a emission scenario, for 2020s ,2050s and 2080s time



horizons respectively. 







On average for both A2a and B2a GCM emission scenarios the time based reliability (the probability of the reservoir to meet the target demand) of Gilgel Abay reservoir shows a value of above \mbox{80\,\%}, i.e. \mbox{80\,\%} of the time the target demand is fully supplied and the resilience (the speed of recovery of the reservoir, form failure) shows value above \mbox{60\,\%}, a value of \mbox{100\,\%} resilience shows the reservoir needs very short time to recover itself from failing to meet the demand and the dimensionless vulnerability (the average volumetric severity of failure during failure period divides by the target demand) of the Gilgel Abay reservoir falls in range (25\%-\mbox{30\,\%}).}

\vspace{0.5cm}
\end{abstract}
\end{center}
\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Blue Nile, climate Change, GCM, Gilgel Abay., Reliability, Reservoir, Resilience, SDSM, Vulnerability
\index[key]{Blue Nile}
\index[key]{Climate Change}
\index[key]{GCM}
\index[key]{Gilgel Abay.}
\index[key]{Reliability}
\index[key]{Reservoir}
\index[key]{Resilience}
\index[key]{SDSM}
\index[key]{Vulnerability}
\end{document}