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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Transformative Optimisation of Agricultural Land Use to Feed 9 Billion People},pdfauthor={Lian Pin Koh, Jaboury Ghazoul},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Comparative advantage, conservation, deforestation, food security},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Transformative Optimisation of Agricultural Land Use to Feed 9 Billion People\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Lian Pin Koh, ETH Zurich, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Zurich, Switzerland, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{lian.koh@env.ethz.ch}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Lian Pin Koh$^{1}$, Jaboury Ghazoul$^{2}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$ETH Zurich, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Switzerland}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$ETH Zurich, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Switzerland}}}
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\index[author]{Koh, Lian Pin}
\index[author]{Ghazoul, Jaboury}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Global human population is expected to continue to grow over the next four decades. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy are expected to intensify land"=use conflicts, contribute to greenhouse"=gas emissions, and exacerbate threats to natural ecosystems and wildlife. It is therefore imperative that we develop ways to balance our growing consumptive needs, particularly for food, with environmental protection. Various suggested solutions include closing agricultural yield gaps, raising yield ceilings, and reducing food lost to waste. In addition, we propose a simple and yet effective land"=use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural output: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops that could be produced and the local biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. We applied this strategy on two groups of essential food crops: cereals (barley, maize, millet, rice, sorghum and wheat) and oilseeds (soy, cottonseed, rapeseed, sunflower seed, groundnut and oil palm). We demonstrate that global annual production of cereals would increase from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons without any expansion of cropland, roughly meeting expected demands in 2050 (i.e. ~3 billion tons/y); while annual production of oilseeds would increase from 427 million to 481 million tons. Furthermore, this strategy would increase annual income for cereal and oilseed producers worldwide by a total of US\$324.4 billion, with the largest absolute benefits accruing to countries with the largest area of agricultural land, including China (increase of US\$58.4 billion; US\$558/ha), the United States (US\$35.5 billion; US\$374/ha) and India (US\$25.9 billion; US\$204/ha). It is, however, some of the poorer countries which would gain the most on a per"=hectare basis, including Iran (US\$13.2 billion; US\$1,127/ha), Mexico (US\$5.1 billion; US\$550/ha) and Morocco (US\$5 billion; US\$571/ha). These estimates suggest that a science"=based approach to land"=use decision making could reap substantial benefits globally, by enhancing productivity and economic returns to the agricultural sector while avoiding cropland expansion and its associated environmental impacts.}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Comparative advantage, conservation, deforestation, food security
\index[key]{Comparative advantage}
\index[key]{Conservation}
\index[key]{Deforestation}
\index[key]{Food!security}
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