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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Food Security Not (yet) Threatened by Declining Pollination},pdfauthor={Jaboury Ghazoul, Lian Pin Koh},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Ecosystem services, food security, pollination, pollinator declines},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Food Security Not (yet) Threatened by Declining Pollination\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Jaboury Ghazoul, ETH Zurich, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092~Zurich, Switzerland, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{jaboury.ghazoul@env.ethz.ch}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Jaboury Ghazoul, Lian Pin Koh}}
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\item[]{\small{\textit{ETH Zurich, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Switzerland}}}
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\index[author]{Ghazoul, Jaboury}
\index[author]{Koh, Lian Pin}
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\textbf{Abstract}
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\normalsize{
Concern for food security has several roots, of which pollination deficiency resulting from supposed pollinator declines has received considerable publicity. We evaluated whether food security is threatened by declining pollinators arising from land use changes, specifically land use intensification. Using a global data set, we found that there is no difference in the rate of production of pollinator"=dependent crops compared to crops that do not depend on pollinators. This suggests that concerns about pollinator declines and loss of pollination services are, at least for food production, unjustified. We do not, however, advocate complacency, as our analysis is global in scale and may mask local crop production declines. It is also possible that pollinators are on a declining trajectory but have not yet reached the point at which productivity of pollinator"=dependent crops are fundamentally impacted. If this were true, we would expect countries that have experienced the most dramatic changes in land use intensification to provide important early warning indicators of crop productivity declines due to pollination limitation. These countries include Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where pollinator"=dependent crops make up a large proportion of agricultural area (12--\mbox{58\,\%}), intensification has been rapid, and more than two"=thirds of the original forest had been lost. While agricultural production in these countries continues to rise, they might be considered to be most vulnerable to future declines.
}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Ecosystem services, food security, pollination, pollinator declines
\index[key]{Ecosystem services}
\index[key]{Food!security}
\index[key]{Pollination}
\index[key]{Pollinator declines}
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