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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Climate Change Impact Assessment on Soil Water availability and Crop Yield in Blue Nile Basin  (case Study Anjeni Watershed), Ethiopia },pdfauthor={Yakob Mohammed Umer, Solomon Seyoum Demissie, Kassa Tadele},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Climate change, Crop yield, SDSM, SWAT and Water availability},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\begin{center}
\Large{\textbf{Climate Change Impact Assessment on Soil Water availability and Crop Yield in Blue Nile Basin  (case Study Anjeni Watershed), Ethiopia \footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Yakob Mohammed Umer, Arba Minch University, Meteorology Science, Arba Minch University, +215~Arba Minch, Ethiopia, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{yami.mohammed6@gmail.com}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Yakob Mohammed Umer$^{1}$, Solomon Seyoum Demissie$^{2}$, Kassa Tadele$^{3}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$Arba Minch University, Meteorology Science, Ethiopia}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Iwmi, Water Resource Systems, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$Arba Minch University, Water Resource and Irrigation Enginering, }}}
\end{itemize*}
\index[author]{Umer, Yakob Mohammed}
\index[author]{Demissie, Solomon Seyoum}
\index[author]{Tadele, Kassa}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{




General Circulation Models (GCMs), currently the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate at course (typically 2o) resolutions. Downscaling of GCM output is necessary to assess the impact of climate change on local water management activities. This study was conducted to quantify changes in water availability and crop production under different climate change scenarios in the Anjeni watershed. This watershed (\mbox{113.4\,ha}) is located in Northern Ethiopia at 37°31'E / 10°40'N. Within the watershed terracing is a common soil and water conservation practice. In order to estimate possible climate change impacts on water availability and crop production within the watershed, climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature were developed for the South Gojam sub basin of area 16,762km$^{2}$, in which  the watershed is located. The outputs of HadCM3 coupled atmosphere"=ocean GCM model for the SRES A2 and SRES B2 emission scenarios were used to produce scenarios for the period 2011 to 2070. These outputs were downscaled to the watershed through the application of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Results indicate that for both scenarios there is an increasing trend in annual temperature; with A2 scenarios showing greater change than the B2 scenario. Significant variation of monthly and seasonal precipitation (i.e. a decrease in average Kiremt precipitation by about 9 and \mbox{7\,\%} in 2020 and 6 and \mbox{5\,\%} in 2050 for both A2 and B2 scenarios respectively) was simulated. These changes in rainfall and temperature were used with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to simulate future water availability and crop production. SWAT was calibrated with five years of monthly flow data (1986--1990) and then the model was re"=run using the scenario data as input. The results indicate that for both scenarios there is an increasing trend in potential evapotranspiration as well as a reduction in the soil water content in the watershed. The study indicated that, due to the combined effect of projected variation in seasonal rainfall, increases in temperature and consequent reduction in soil water, there would be an overall decrease in crop production in the watershed.}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Climate change, Crop yield, SDSM, SWAT and Water availability
\index[key]{Climate change}
\index[key]{Crop!yield}
\index[key]{SDSM}
\index[key]{SWAT and Water availability}
\end{document}