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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Ethanol Production, Food and Forests},pdfauthor={Saraly Andrade de Sa, Charles Palmer, Stefanie Engel},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Deforestation, Ethanol, Food, Indirect impacts, Land use, Migration},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Ethanol Production, Food and Forests\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Saraly Andrade de Sa, ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092~Zürich, Switzerland, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{saraly.andrade@env.ethz.ch}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Saraly Andrade de Sa$^{1}$, Charles Palmer$^{2}$, Stefanie Engel$^{3}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Switzerland}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$London School of Economics, Department of Geography and Environment, United Kingdom}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$ETH Zurich, Institue for Environmental Decisions (IED), Switzerland}}}
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\index[author]{Andrade de Sa, Saraly}
\index[author]{Palmer, Charles}
\index[author]{Engel, Stefanie}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Rising concerns about anthropogenic climate change have lead to biofuels being promoted as a potential fossil fuel substitute, with additional policy implications for energy"=security and rural development. However, there is an on"=going debate about biofuels' potential negative impacts on land use with forest conversion and rise of food prices as two much"=publicized outcomes. Willing to contribute to this debate, we investigate the direct and indirect impacts of ethanol production on land use, deforestation and food production, from an economic perspective. An analytical partial equilibrium model of a national economy with two sectors and two regions, one of which includes a residual forest, is developed. We analyse how an exogenous increase in the world ethanol price affects agents' decisions regarding the allocation of inputs (land and labour) between sectors (energy crop and food). Three potential effects, as well as the economic conditions under which they manifest, are identified and isolated. First, the standard and well"=documented effect of direct land competition between rival uses increases deforestation and decreases the amount of food produced. Second, an indirect displacement of food production across regions, provoked by a shift in the price of food, increases forest conversion and reduces the total output of the food sector. Finally, labour mobility between both sectors and regions tends to decrease food production but also deforestation. We show that the overall impact of ethanol production on food production is negative, while it can be ambiguous regarding forest conversion. These results provide a number of interesting pointers to further, empirical research. }

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Deforestation, Ethanol, Food, Indirect impacts, Land use, Migration
\index[key]{Deforestation}
\index[key]{Ethanol}
\index[key]{Food}
\index[key]{Indirect impacts}
\index[key]{Land!use}
\index[key]{Migration}
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