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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Quantifying the Effects of Weather Variability on Agricultural Production in Africa},pdfauthor={Summer Allen, Felix Baquedano, Molly Brown},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Agricultural Production, NDVI, Sahel, weather variability},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\begin{center}
\Large{\textbf{Quantifying the Effects of Weather Variability on Agricultural Production in Africa\footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Summer Allen, Georg-august-university Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Platz der Goettinger Sieben 5, 37073~Goettingen, Germany, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{sallen@gwdg.de}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Summer Allen$^{1}$, Felix Baquedano$^{2}$, Molly Brown$^{3}$}}
\end{center}
\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$Georg-august-university Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Germany}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$Economic Research Service, }}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{3}$National Aeronautics and Space Administration, }}}
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\index[author]{Allen, Summer}
\index[author]{Baquedano, Felix}
\index[author]{Brown, Molly}
\begin{center}
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\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
Agriculture is a weather"=driven enterprise and for this reason, is subject to natural variability and risk, which can have a substantial impact on food security.  Climate change is projected to increase this variability.  Therefore, understanding the role of precipitation variability in agricultural production is increasingly important, especially in highly vulnerable areas such as sub-Saharan Africa.  Accounting for this variability could reduce food emergencies and improve targeting of assistance and support for mitigation measures.  In this paper, we review and discuss the importance of including measurements of weather variability in estimates of annual agricultural production.  To evaluate the role of this data on short"=term projections of agricultural production, we use both measurements of precipitation as well as the growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).  While precipitation data is useful, it is often not available or is aggregated across measurement points.  Satellite data, such as NDVI, in particular, could provide site"=specific information that accounts for runoff, which is especially important in semi"=arid areas.  Therefore, we first estimate the results for the Sahelian region of Africa and look at extensions to other regions.  We use a Cobb-Douglas production function to quantify the effects of weather variability on annual agricultural production for a 24 year period.  The results of this analysis clearly support the inclusion of a weather variable in production projections and call for more disaggregated agricultural production data.  Use of satellite data, in particular, could be helpful in providing warning (and assistance) regarding food insecurity concerns in areas without timely precipitation statistics or ground"=based monitoring programs to collect such data.  Use of this information could help developing countries cope with both seasonal shocks and long"=term changes in climate.  







}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Agricultural Production, NDVI, Sahel, weather variability
\index[key]{Agricultural!Production}
\index[key]{NDVI}
\index[key]{Sahel}
\index[key]{Weather variability}
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