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\hypersetup{pdftitle={Historical and Future Trends of Precipitation and Drought in Central and West Asia and North Africa },pdfauthor={Wolfgang Göbel, Eddy de Pauw},pdfsubject={Tropentag 2010: Abstract},pdfkeywords={Agroclimatology, Central Asia, climate, climate change, climate change impact, climate map, drought, East Africa, Horn of Africa, land suitability, Mediterranean Region, Middle East, Near East, North Africa, olive, precipitation, rainfall, SPI, trend map},pdfpagemode=None,colorlinks=true}
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\parbox[b]{13.4cm}{\centering \large{\textbf{Tropentag, September 14-16, 2010, Zurich}}\\[1ex] \Large{``World Food System  ---\\A Contribution from Europe''\\[2ex]}}
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\Large{\textbf{Historical and Future Trends of Precipitation and Drought in Central and West Asia and North Africa \footnote{\textbf{Contact Address:} Wolfgang Göbel, ICARDA, GIS Unit, P.O.Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria, \mbox{e-mail}: \email{goebel.agrometeo@web.de}}\\[0.8ex]}}
\normalsize{\textsc{Wolfgang Göbel$^{1}$, Eddy de Pauw$^{2}$}}
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\begin{itemize*}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{1}$ICARDA, GIS Unit, Syria}}}
\item[]{\small{\textit{$^{2}$ICARDA, GIS Unit, }}}
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\index[author]{Göbel, Wolfgang}
\index[author]{de Pauw, Eddy}
\begin{center}
\vspace{1.1cm}
\textbf{Abstract}
\begin{abstract}
\normalsize{
The paper examines the precipitation trends in the CWANA region (Central and West Asia and North Africa, including the Horn of Africa). On the basis of climatic grids published by the GPCC and data from selected climate stations, it is shown that there has been a statistically often highly significant downward trend of precipitation for at least the last hundred years across large parts study area. During the same period, the frequencies of droughts as expressed by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the extent of the sizes of the drought"=affected areas have increased. The parts of the region that have been drying up include practically the entire Mediterranean basin as well as most of Sudan, the Horn of Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. In the east of CWANA, in Iran, Afghanistan, and in the Central Asian Republics, no such spatially uniform trend emerges. 







It is shown that for the Mediterranean Region, predictions of precipitation for the coming decades based on the historical trends agree remarkably well with the projections by the Global Circulation Models that have been used in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4). Further south and east, in Sudan, in the Horn of Africa, and in the eastern half of the Arabian Peninsula, this correlation between historical precipitation trends and GCM predictions breaks down. Here, historical decreases of precipitation and increases of the frequency of droughts contrast with model predictions of increased rainfall for the future.







The impact of the historical and predicted changes of precipitation on agriculture is illustrated by the associated changes of the climatic suitability for olive.



}

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\noindent \textbf{Keywords:} Agroclimatology, Central Asia, climate, climate change, climate change impact, climate map, drought, East Africa, Horn of Africa, land suitability, Mediterranean Region, Middle East, Near East, North Africa, olive, precipitation, rainfall, SPI, trend map
\index[key]{Agroclimatology}
\index[key]{Central Asia}
\index[key]{Climate}
\index[key]{Climate change}
\index[key]{Climate change impact}
\index[key]{Climate map}
\index[key]{Drought}
\index[key]{East Africa}
\index[key]{Horn of Africa}
\index[key]{Land!suitability}
\index[key]{Mediterranean Region}
\index[key]{Middle East}
\index[key]{Near East}
\index[key]{North Africa}
\index[key]{Olive}
\index[key]{Precipitation}
\index[key]{Rainfall}
\index[key]{SPI}
\index[key]{Trend map}
\end{document}