Tropentag, October 6 - 8, 2009 in Hamburg "Biophysical and Socio-economic Frame Conditions for the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources"

Tropical Deforestation Affects Long Term Persistence of Sumatran Tiger: A Modelling Study

¹Gadjah Mada University, Faculty of Forestry, Wildlife Ecology and Management, Indonesia
²Dresden University of Technology, Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Germany

Abstract

Road construction has been used to explain deforestation patterns in tropical areas. Roads divide tropical forest into several forest fragments and lead to isolation of wildlife. The presence of roads provides good accessibility for predators such as the Sumatran tiger as well as for its preys. However, at the same time, roads increase the probability of animals being exposed to humans and consequently increase their mortality. Could road development be used to explain the mortality of the tiger and its prey? Do Sumatran tigers survive in the presence of roads encroachment in protected area?

Deforestation through road development within the Tesso Nillo national park was investigated during 1982 to 2005 using satellite images. The results were used as input for an individual-based model of Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) describing the spatial dynamics of the Sumatra tiger population in order to provide a better understanding of the mechanistic effects of deforestation on this endangered animal. This model considers tiger reproduction, feeding behaviour, and prey dynamics. The importance of each process and its parameterisation was extensively tested by sensitivity analyses using the improved Morris method. The development of main roads, as well as logging roads were simulated for three different scenarios based on the observations in the national park. The time horizon of the simulations was 15 years. The effect of the different scenarios on the number of death tiger and its prey were assessed, and a ranking list was compiled serving as recommendation for a decision support system.

Keywords: Deforestation, individual-based model, Sumatra tiger, wildlife

Contact Address: Muhammad Ali Imron, Gadjah Mada University, Faculty of Forestry, Wildlife Ecology and Management, Bulaksumur, 55281 Yogyakarta, Indonesia, e-mail: muhammadali.imrongmail.com