Tropentag, October 6 - 8, 2009 in Hamburg "Biophysical and Socio-economic Frame Conditions for the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources"

Adaptation of Tropical and Subtropical Pine Plantation Forestry to Climate Change: Climate Proofing Seed Material of Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii

¹University of Hamburg, Department of Wood Science, Germany
²Bioversity International, Managing and Understanding Biodiversity, Italy
³International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA), Colombia
⁴Central America and Mexico Coniferous Resources Cooperative (CAMCORE), United States of America

Abstract

Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii, two pines native from Mexico and Central America are important plantation species for the forestry sector in the (sub)tropics. In the last decades members of the International Tree Conservation & Domestication Program (CAMCORE), North Carolina State University, have established large multi site provenance trials for these pine species. The data provide valuable information about species and provenance choice for plantation establishment in many regions with different climates. However, since climate is changing rapidly, it might become increasingly difficult to choose the right species and provenance to plant. The aim of the study is to test the suitability of seed material under changing climate of two P. patula varieties, P. patula var. patula and P. patula var. longipedunculata, and two P. tecunumanii ecotypes (highland and lowland). For each variety and ecotype, a site growth model was developed that statistically relates growth with environmental factors and couples the predictions to the average 2020 climate prediction of four general circulation models. Three developed models were significant and robust. Provenances of P. tecunumanii from lowland areas in Central America are expected to be most productive in 2020 because of their promising performance under rather hot and wet climates. Intraspecific diversity did matter in the case of P. tecunumanii growth. Provenances from the low area populations grew faster than those from high altitudes, and especially outperformed P. tecunumanii high altitude provenances and P. patula provenances when the climate becomes warmer and wetter.The results also show that in some regions the most suitable planting material today is not necessarily the most suitable in 2020, around the time of harvesting.

Keywords: Climate change impact predictions, height growth, management decision support tools, provenance trials, site growth modelling

Contact Address: Christoph Leibing, University of Hamburg, Department of Wood Science, Friedrich-Ebert Str. 54, 22459 Hamburg, Germany, e-mail: cleibinggmail.com