ANH TAI DO, WERNER DOPPLER
University of Hohenheim, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany
The agricultural production sector contributes mainly to the living standard of the farmers in the mountainous areas of Vietnam as indicated by high dependent level on natural resources especially land resource. The area for agricultural production is limited therefore a small change on this resource in both quantity and quality will lead to potential challenges or opportunities for the sustainable development in the area. The overall objective of this study was to identify the different challenges and potential of future land resource change in the different settlements that will impact on the economic development in the area. In addition to farming and rural systems approaches method, the dynamic linear programming model was used to measure the impact of different change in the land resource on the economic success in farm families.
The increasing advantage of resources for economic development combined with the access to infrastructure and markets indicate that the population densities will increase rapidly in urban and peri-urban centres implying land for agricultural production will become scarcer in these areas in future. While on sloping areas such as middle altitude and high mountainous areas the increasing population will lead to increasing demand on food supply that will put more pressure on land accelerating overuse and misuse with increasing soil erosion and degradation process in this area. The dynamic linear programming models show that declining farm size will be the main challenge for future economic development in the area because this leads to family income reduction ranging between 9% and 25% with reduction of 10% and 30% of land size over ten years period respectively. Soil conservation programme will increase soil fertility and crop yields, which will generate higher incomes for farms and families in the future averaging more than 30% per year as compared to the without programme. This indicates a high potential for the future sustainable development on the sloping land areas.
Keywords: Future strategy, land resource, mountainous areas, Vietnam